「衰」很大！第一季GDP負10.24% 史上最大衰退幅度

[jlh6027]

外界認為，去年第四季台灣的經濟成長率(GDP)應是谷底，但主計處公布今年第一季GDP，卻遠超過預期，比去年第四季負8.61%還糟，擴大至負10.24%，是史上最大衰退幅度。主計處指出，占GDP三成的製造業受出口重挫，拉低經濟成長率7.7個百分點，是台灣第一季經濟大衰退的主因。


台股今年漲幅凌駕全球，但新公布的台灣第一季的經濟成長率，可能要讓不少人跌破眼鏡。主計處指出，由於大多數國家經濟衰退幅度大於去年第四季，讓台灣第一季出口驟減36.65%，因此也讓去年第四季的經濟成長率負8.61%再擴大至今年第一季的負10.24%。主計長石素梅說：『(原音)我們第一季的出口，就是金額來說，減少31億美元，約新台幣1053億元。實質GDP占近3成的製造業，因為出口重挫，出現前所未見負成長28.6%，拉低經濟成長率7.7個百分點。這是對負10.24%經濟成長的影響，占3/4。』


如果從實質GDP來看，從去年第三季開始就持續下滑。從3.3兆、3.1兆到今年第一季跌破3字頭，只剩2.99兆。主計處認為，今年第一季應該就是谷底，但全年出口仍會大幅減少1999億美元，減幅達21.81%，將遠大於1998年的亞洲金融風暴、2001年的IT泡沫和911恐怖攻擊。


不過主計處也指出，由於政府祭出調降稅賦、開放陸客來台">陸客來台觀光等振興經濟政策，對GDP貢獻2.97個百分點。因此今年GDP的減幅將從第二季逐季縮小，預測第四季時將正成長5.2%。全年GDP則較上次預測下修為負4.25%，將是史上最差的經濟成長率。

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