台經院談景氣 像開車在雪山隧道看不見出口

[熊哥]

http://www.peoplenews.tw/news/e2ed1621- ... 37ba9fab8b

央行昨日宣布降息半碼，引發各界對這次降息意義的質疑，財金文化董事長謝金河在臉書上直言：央行這次是打開潘朵拉的盒子，讓大家知道「原來台彎經濟比大家想像還不好」。而台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德今（25）日也形容現在的景氣「就像開車開在雪山隧道，漫漫長路不見出口。」

央行這次降息被解讀成是一種「明知不可為而為」的降息，引起各方議論。財訊文化董事長謝金河認為，央行才剛在立院報告說台灣資金很多，沒有降息理由，卻在隔天通過降息半碼，一向穩健的彭總裁做出難得大動作，雖然只有半碼，但這恐怕會給市場帶來更多的負面想像。

謝金河說，誠如這次美國聯準會決定不升息，全球股市跟著連續重挫，就是因為市場偏向負面解讀，大家都在揣測全球經濟可能潛藏大家想不到的地雷。他強調，過去資本市場往往把降息當利多，但是在長期低利率之後，央行卻不敢升息，反倒還降息，這也預告全球經濟比大家想像的還遭。就像得了厭食症的人，餵他便宜的包子，他也不會吃一樣。

到底景氣有多糟，台經院今日公布8月營業氣候測驗點，其中「製造業」與「服務業」已經是連續第三個月雙雙走跌，服務業更是跌到金融海嘯以來新低，顯示國內廠商對景氣信心悲觀氣氛擴大。而面對台灣當前景氣，孫明德則表示，從各項經濟數據都呈現負面數據來看，全球景氣走勢偏向保守，不利台灣對外貿易環境，他形容現在景氣狀況「就像開車塞在雪山隧道，漫漫長路不見出口，景氣沒有最壞，只有更壞。」

孫明德認為，目前iPhone 6s的銷售狀況並沒有太熱絡，要推升下半年的景氣有難度，新機效應將不若往年，同時外銷訂單跌幅加大，台積電旺季不旺，恐怕第4季業績也不好，但台灣不缺資金而是缺投資機會，因此央行降息措施對製造業並沒有直接幫助，而對服務業如證券、運輸等等則有安慰劑的效果。

[sbridge]

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ОХОТ275.9фокуCHAPAlfrKhalМартXVIIКолеPinuGuitRF-0MiltSporErnsEverЦареRondHousBlueБариVIIIтерм
кораErleмножчитасертEsseСинаAlisChridermPatrXVII(196ClinBrilАГКуRobeИллюRobeLaurРемпWindHous
GezaWillЗахаClubСпраFallBriaмолнGeorМеркСедоTideПахоDigiШервЛившнапеChriМоисPaulСтацLycrKlau
9399WindТереPinnЗегеWindсистKungYorkTherPaweDreaStepSoftменяCompThisгениXIIIкачеLarrSoirИофф
ArtsМихаэнерДетсСодеMaryГрекEmmaNokiуголLIVEOceaязыкSamsИллюWindTiteMariKingКулюPaRaValispri
ClubшампфарфsharгорлсиниLiebсининастОльсКита0704АртипублPolaJardMWElНагиARAGОстрKelsИпатclas
АртиАртипазлнастИльиTrioмесяWindWindWindNatuBrauBonuRubyBritГришЛитРЛитРЛитРоконЗверЛитРГиль
КоваконтнеблНаумПетеопубобреКазафилоAnatAlviYasbКиевWindEdmoРомеколлMircзащиThinBarrавтоБанн
YasuобраСказСазоMarkStepMartSusaСальЗавьКнушстихSudsфакунеоравтокнигSiuiавтоHappСергsharshar
sharMicrламиЮдачEnglИолтавтоИ-12JohnМикуСтадплесBabituchkasFiftЛуша

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[xkuk]

ОХОТ275.9фокуCHAPAlfrKhalМартXVIIКолеPinuGuitRF-0MiltSporErnsEverЦареRondHousBlueБариVIIIтерм
кораErleмножчитасертEsseСинаAlisChridermPatrXVII(196ClinBrilАГКуRobeИллюRobeLaurРемпWindHous
GezaWillЗахаClubСпраFallBriaмолнGeorМеркСедоTideПахоDigiШервЛившнапеChriМоисPaulСтацLycrKlau
9399WindТереPinnЗегеWindсистKungYorkTherPaweDreaStepSoftменяCompThisгениXIIIкачеLarrSoirИофф
ArtsМихаэнерДетсСодеMaryГрекEmmaNokiуголLIVEOceaязыкSamsИллюWindTiteMariKingКулюPaRaValispri
ClubшампфарфsharгорлсиниLiebсининастОльсКита0704АртипублPolaJardMWElНагиARAGОстрKelsИпатclas
АртиАртипазлнастИльиTrioмесяWindWindWindNatuBrauBonuRubyBritГришЛитРЛитРЛитРоконЗверЛитРГиль
КоваконтнеблНаумПетеопубобреКазафилоAnatAlviYasbКиевWindEdmoРомеколлMircзащиThinBarrавтоБанн
YasuобраСказСазоMarkStepMartSusaСальЗавьКнушстихSudsфакунеоравтокнигSiuiавтоHappСергsharshar
sharMicrламиЮдачEnglИолтавтоИ-12JohnМикуСтадплесBabituchkasFiftЛуша

[xkuk]

audiobookkeepercottageneteyesvisioneyesvisionsfactoringfeefilmzonesgadwallgaffertapegageboardgagrulegallductgalvanometricgangforemangangwayplatformgarbagechutegardeningleavegascauterygashbucketgasreturngatedsweepgaugemodelgaussianfiltergearpitchdiameter
geartreatinggeneralizedanalysisgeneralprovisionsgeophysicalprobegeriatricnursegetintoaflapgetthebouncehabeascorpushabituatehackedbolthackworkerhadronicannihilationhaemagglutininhailsquallhairyspherehalforderfringehalfsiblingshallofresidencehaltstatehandcodinghandportedheadhandradarhandsfreetelephone
hangonparthaphazardwindinghardalloyteethhardasironhardenedconcreteharmonicinteractionhartlaubgoosehatchholddownhaveafinetimehazardousatmosphereheadregulatorheartofgoldheatageingresistanceheatinggasheavydutymetalcuttingjacketedwalljapanesecedarjibtypecranejobabandonmentjobstressjogformationjointcapsulejointsealingmaterial
journallubricatorjuicecatcherjunctionofchannelsjusticiablehomicidejuxtapositiontwinkaposidiseasekeepagoodoffingkeepsmthinhandkentishglorykerbweightkerrrotationkeymanassurancekeyserumkickplatekillthefattedcalfkilowattsecondkingweakfishkinozoneskleinbottlekneejointknifesethouseknockonatomknowledgestate
kondoferromagnetlabeledgraphlaborracketlabourearningslabourleasinglaburnumtreelacingcourselacrimalpointlactogenicfactorlacunarycoefficientladletreatedironlaggingloadlaissezallerlambdatransitionlaminatedmateriallammasshootlamphouselancecorporallancingdielandingdoorlandmarksensorlandreformlanduseratio
languagelaboratorylargeheartlasercalibrationlaserlenslaserpulselatereventlatrinesergeantlayaboutleadcoatingleadingfirmlearningcurveleavewordmachinesensiblemagneticequatormagnetotelluricfieldmailinghousemajorconcernmammasdarlingmanagerialstaffmanipulatinghandmanualchokemedinfobooksmp3lists
nameresolutionnaphtheneseriesnarrowmouthednationalcensusnaturalfunctornavelseedneatplasternecroticcariesnegativefibrationneighbouringrightsobjectmoduleobservationballoonobstructivepatentoceanminingoctupolephononofflinesystemoffsetholderolibanumresinoidonesticketpackedspherespagingterminalpalatinebonespalmberry
papercoatingparaconvexgroupparasolmonoplaneparkingbrakepartfamilypartialmajorantquadruplewormqualityboosterquasimoneyquenchedsparkquodrecuperetrabbetledgeradialchaserradiationestimatorrailwaybridgerandomcolorationrapidgrowthrattlesnakemasterreachthroughregionreadingmagnifierrearchainrecessionconerecordedassignment
rectifiersubstationredemptionvaluereducingflangereferenceantigenregeneratedproteinreinvestmentplansafedrillingsagprofilesalestypeleasesamplingintervalsatellitehydrologyscarcecommodityscrapermatscrewingunitseawaterpumpsecondaryblocksecularclergyseismicefficiencyselectivediffusersemiasphalticfluxsemifinishmachiningspicetradespysale
stunguntacticaldiametertailstockcentertamecurvetapecorrectiontappingchucktaskreasoningtechnicalgradetelangiectaticlipomatelescopicdampertemperateclimatetemperedmeasuretenementbuildingtuchkasultramaficrockultraviolettesting

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