image 寫:WHO,幾時挺見大核電廠?
WHO是健康衛生單位, 本來就與挺不挺核電廠無關, 但是它們發佈最科學理性的客觀評估 (可惜反核者許多人不相信)
反核者觀念來源基本上是源自於:
輻射很可怕 (fear) -> 核災很恐怖 (terror) -> 台灣不能成為福島 (隱喻核災過的福島很恐怖) -> 反核相反的, 反核者相信的報告 (例如: 沈醫師引用的俄羅斯報告, 或者情色作家的說詞) 是禁不起科學驗證的.
WHO, UN等的報告也指出psychologic (fear, terror, depression) 造成的影響比radiation更大 (不就與反核一直在宣傳的懼怕輻災相悖?)
核災當然是可怕, 但是可怕的程度如何?
如果反核者邏輯真的是如此來的, 那
"反核邏輯源頭" 就與世界主流共識不同了.
image 寫:世界各大國際組織 反核的也跟你不一樣
請舉例.
另外, 小弟手癢, 真把原文都挖出來念了. 就算立場於您相左, 也請看在小弟辛苦看原文的份上, 拍拍手吧
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Bookle ... rnobyl.pdf[IAEA] Chernobyl’s Legacy: Health,
Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts
and Recommendations to the Governments of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukrainehttp://www.who.int/ionizing_radiation/c ... y%2006.pdf[WHO] Health Effects o fthe Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes原文很長, 有興趣的自己可以查閱, 我只翻譯重點部份
SummaryThe highest radiation doses were received by emergency workers and on-site personnel,
in total about 1000 people, during the first days of the accident, and doses were fatal for
some of the workers. 接受最高劑量的是第一天的緊急處理人員, 約1000人, 有些人達到致死劑量. In time more than 600000 people were registered as emergency and recovery workers ('liquidators'). 總共有60萬多人員註冊為緊急以及救難人員. Although some received high doses of radiation during their work, 雖然有些於工作中接受高劑量, many of them and the majority of the residents of areas designated as‘contaminated’ in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine 但是許多工作人員, 以及大多數屬於污染地區的居民 (超過5百萬人) (over 5 million people) received relatively low whole-body doses of radiation, not much higher than doses due to natural background radiation. 絕大多數接觸的都是全身的低劑量, 不比天然背景輻射高多少... Nevertheless, the accident was a human tragedy and had significant environmental, public health and socio-economic impacts. 然而, 這事件仍然是個人類悲劇, 而且有顯著的環境, 公衛以及社會經濟影響 (其後解釋)
Childhood thyroid cancer caused by radioactive iodine fallout is one of the main health
impacts of the accident. 兒童甲狀腺癌, 因為輻射落塵引起, 是主要的健康影響. Doses to the thyroid received in the first few months after the accident were particularly high in those who were children at the time and drank milk with high levels of radioactive iodine. 劑量高者, 尤其在事件後數個月內主要是持續飲用含有放射碘的牛奶. By 2002, more than 4000 thyroid cancer cases had been diagnosed in this group, and it is most likely that a large fraction of these thyroid cancers is attributable to radioiodine intake. 直到2002年, 已有4000個甲狀腺癌案例被診斷出來, 絕大多數都是食用到汙染的牛奶所致.
Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed at a young age, 除了年輕人族群顯著甲狀腺癌的機率增加之外, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the incidence of solid cancers or leukemia due to radiation in the most affected populations. 實體腫瘤以及白血病機率, 並沒有顯著增加. There was, however, an increase in psychological problems among the affected population, compounded by insufficient communication about radiation effects and by the social disruption and economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union. 然而, 有增加的精神心理疾病, 再堆疊著對於輻射效應不充分的知識溝通所致, 又接續著被蘇聯解體造成的社會動盪以及經濟蕭條所影響.
內文節錄其中段落
How many people died as a result of the accident and how many more are
likely to die in the future? 多少人已經死亡, 多少人還會再死?The number of deaths attributable to the Chernobyl accident has been of paramount
interest to the general public, scientists, the mass media, and politicians. 死亡人數一直是大眾, 科學家, 媒體, 以及政治關注的焦點. Claims have been made that tens or even hundreds of thousands of persons have died as a result of the accident. 有人宣稱死亡人數上萬人, 甚至數十萬以上, These claims are highly exaggerated. 這些宣稱都是高度誇大.
Have there been or will there be any inherited or reproductive effects? 是否有, 或者將會有遺傳性或者生殖異常?Because of the relatively low dose levels to which the populations of the Chernobyl affected regions were exposed, there is no evidence or any likelihood of observing decreased fertility among males or females in the general population as a direct result of radiation exposure. 沒有降低生育能力的科學證據. These doses are also unlikely to have any major effect on the number of stillbirths, adverse pregnancy outcomes or delivery complications or the overall health of children.劑量也不太會造成主要效應例如死產, 懷孕的負面效應, 生產的負面效應, 或者整體胎兒健康影響.
Birth rates may be lower in ‘contaminated’ areas because of concern about having
children (this issue is obscured by the very high rate of medical abortions) and the fact
that many younger people have moved away. 生育率會降低是因為人們擔心在污染區懷有小孩, 而且許多年輕人已經搬遷. No discernable increase in hereditary effects caused by radiation is expected 沒有明顯增加遺傳問題, based on the low risk coefficients estimated by UNSCEAR (2001) or in previous reports on Chernobyl health effects. Since 2000, there has been no new evidence provided to change this conclusion.從2000年以來, 也沒有新證據改變以前的結論.
There has been a modest but steady increase in reported congenital malformations 先天性畸形機率有上升, in both ‘contaminated’ and ‘uncontaminated’ areas of 事實上白俄羅斯從1986年開始污染區及非污染區都同時上升. Belarus since 1986; This does not appear to be radiation-related and may be the result of increased registration. (先天性畸形) 與輻射無關, 可能與增加的註冊人數有關.
What has been the main impact on individuals? 主要對個人的影響為何? 如同車諾比論壇關於健康的報告, As noted in the Chernobyl Forum report on Health, “the mental health impact 心理健康衝擊是最主要的公衛問題 of Chernobyl is the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident to date.” Psychological distress arising from the accident and its aftermath has had a profound impact on individual and community behaviour.心理衝擊與沮喪對於個人以及社區型為有著重大的影響. Populations in the affected areas exhibit strongly negative attitudes in self-assessments of health and wellbeing and a strong sense of lack of control over their own lives. 災區居民表現出強烈的負面情緒 Associated with these perceptions is an exaggerated sense of the dangers to health of exposure to radiation. 與上述有關聯的, 就是對輻射暴露的過度誇大認知. The affected populations exhibit a widespread belief that exposed people are in some way condemned to a shorter life expectancy. 災居區民認為他們是被天譴, 註定要折壽. Such fatalism is also linked to a loss of initiative to solve the problems of sustaining an income
and to dependency on assistance from the state.
Anxiety over the effects of radiation on health shows no sign of diminishing. 對於輻射的焦慮至今看似沒有消退. Indeed, it may even be spreading beyond the affected areas into a wide section of the population. 的確, 它甚至持續擴散到災區以外, 到廣大民眾. Parents may be transferring their anxiety to their children through example and excessively protective care.父母可能因為過度焦慮, 表現出過度保護的舉動, 而將此焦慮傳給下一代.
然而歸咎許多健康影響都是核災之前, Yet while attributing a wide variety of medical complaints to Chernobyl, many residents of the affected areas neglect the role of personal behaviour in maintaining health. 許多居民已經對自我健康忽略了 (按: 可能因為污染區住久了麻木了, 也有可能因為上述負面情緒讓他們自暴自棄) This applies not only to radiation risks such as the consumption of mushrooms and berries from contaminated forests食用污染區的磨菇, 草莓, but also to areas where individual behaviour is decisive, such as misuse of alcohol and tobacco. 還有的是酒精以及菸草濫用.
In this context, it is crucial to note that adult mortality has been rising alarmingly across the former Soviet Union for several decades 很重要的一點, 也要提及, 蘇聯的成人死亡率, 其實這數十年來一直在上昇. Life expectancy has declined precipitously, particularly for men, and in the Russian Federation stood at an average of 65 in 2003 (just 59 years for men). The main causes of death in the Chernobyl-affected region are the same as those nationwide 車諾比影響區成人的死亡原因, 與蘇聯其他區域都一樣— cardiovascular diseases, injuries and poisonings 心血管, 外傷, 毒物— rather than any radiation-related illnesses. 而非輻射線引起的疾病. The most pressing health concerns for the affected areas thus lie in poor diet and lifestyle factors such as alcohol and tobacco use, 災區主要公衛衝擊是飲食以及生活習慣不佳, 例如酒精, 抽菸, 還有貧窮以及就醫不便. as well as poverty and limited access to health care. These threats may be even more acute in Chernobyl-affected areas這些衝擊在車諾比受影響區更為明顯, owing to the impact of low incomes on diet因為低收入, the high share of socially deprived families高比例被社會剝奪的家庭, and shortages of trained medical staff. 缺乏醫護人員.
核四是多蓋的 蓋錯了 又發覺是個大怪獸 應該回頭是岸才是