醫聲論壇

http://mag.udn.com/mag/world/storypage. ... _ID=154946
幽默冰島人：你們的錢在我們手裏
2008/10/18

【聯合報╱國際中心／田思怡】


冰島雖然瀕臨破產，冰島人民卻也並不顯得恐慌，照樣優閒的過他們的日子。


前幾天世界盃足球賽歐洲區預賽，還有大批冰島人湧到荷蘭觀看賽事，並展現冰島人的幽默。


當荷蘭隊踢進第一球時，看台上的冰島球迷馬上舉起橫幅：「你們的錢在我們手裏」。


箇中涵意是威脅荷蘭隊：你們若贏了球，就別想讓我們還錢。


荷蘭球迷也打出標語：「如果荷蘭儲戶的存款得到保證，我們就來幫助你。」


終場冰島以0比2輸給荷蘭，而荷蘭政府也同時答應提供冰島貸款援助。


【2008/10/18 聯合報】

http://mag.udn.com/mag/world/storypage. ... _ID=154411
擅買空賣空 冰島從高處摔下
2008/10/17


【經濟日報/編譯陳家齊】


知名投資人麥嘉華最近說，亞洲國家的銀行因為「太笨了」，沒有牽扯到太多複雜的金融資產，所以在次級房貸風暴中僥倖躲過一劫。依照這種看法，冰島就是「太聰明了」，才會淪為這場金融風暴中第一張倒下的歐洲骨牌。


僅僅在18個月前，冰島的經濟還是全球政府看齊的對象，尤其是缺乏天然資源的小國典範。這個原先靠捕鱈魚維生的迷你漁業小國，大力發展金融業，以高利率與低管制的開放金融環境，吸引海外資金。


冰島銀行大舉發展的作法與雷曼兄弟公司、美林等投資銀行一樣，在國際資金市場大量借入低利短債，投資高獲利長期資產。這種模式下要借得愈多才賺得愈多，冰島的財務槓桿因此延長到驚人幅度，總外債規模可能是國內生產毛額（GDP）的12倍。


於是，冰島實質上變成一個國家級的避險基金。一連數年的超低利率資金環境，以及資產證券化導致的信用急速膨脹，讓這種套利模式獲利豐碩，讓雷克雅維克成為全球最貴的城市之一。但是一旦資金市場枯竭，靠大量借錢維生的冰島金融體系就瀕臨崩潰，而貿易經常帳長期赤字、人口僅有30萬人的冰島，沒有什麼財政備援力拯救這些資產動輒是全國GDP數倍的巨獸銀行，政府必須向外國乞錢來穩定金融。


這種以債養債的經濟模式怎能走到這步田地？因為在次貸風暴之前，世界最頂尖的的經濟體—美國，就是在財政與貿易雙赤字長期擴大的險境下，倚賴源源湧進的國際廉價資金，操作金融煉金術，一連數年看來歌舞升平。「冰雪聰明」的冰島學了這一套買空賣空的招數，不料遇上百年一遇的信用緊縮危機。



【2008-10-08/經濟日報】

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